Insights

Michigan sentiment hit a record low of 44.8 in May 2026, but low readings are a weak guide to spending. Consumer sentiment surveys ask households how they see their finances, jobs and the economy, and investors read the results as an early hint about demand. This guide compares the University of Michigan and Conference Board surveys, shows dated readings through October 2026, and explains the gap between present conditions and expectations, along with the "below 80" recession rule of thumb the Conference Board cited in 2024 and why it has misfired. It also covers why sentiment and actual spending can move apart, what Federal Reserve research found about the link, and the methodology changes that make long comparisons harder. It ends with a short checklist for reading a new release without over-reading it.

Oil reacts to feared supply losses and real ones very differently, and gas prices split by region. Conflict reaches crude oil and natural gas through a few traceable channels: a risk premium in futures, flows blocked at chokepoints, sanctions, and cushions such as spare capacity and emergency stocks. Brent data from FRED and reports from the EIA and IEA show five episodes (1990, 2019, 2022, 2023-24, 2026) and why some spikes fade within days while others last for months. The guide also covers why Henry Hub, TTF and JKM gas prices can move in opposite directions, how a barrel becomes a gallon of gasoline, and a checklist for judging a headline.